According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Association (INC), the global almond industry has sufficient supply in the 2024/25 production season. Based on the calculation of fruit kernels, it is expected that global production will increase by 22% compared to the 2023/24 season, reaching 1794883 tons. At the end of the current production season, the carried over inventory will be 274114 tons, and merging with the total production of the new production season will increase the total supply by 9%, reaching 2.1 billion tons.

Although INC has adopted a more cautious forecast for California's production, which is 1.3 million tons or 2.9 billion pounds, US production is expected to continue to grow by 19%. The production of almond in Australia has resumed and will be 55% higher than the previous season. It is expected that Spain's production will increase by 30%. Spain's domestic production for the 2023/24 season is estimated to be between 80000 tons and 113152 tons, with INC's forecast in a relatively high range. The growth conditions of crops in the new production season may be more favorable, but some producers emphasize that the persistent drought experienced in recent years will have a long-term impact on fruit trees and may reduce yields. The output of China, Portugal, Turkey and Greece will show double-digit growth in the new quarter, while that of Chile, Italy and Morocco will decline. China's production was 15000 tons in the 2023/24 season and is expected to reach 25000 tons in the 2024/25 season, with a growth rate of 66.7%. China will also surpass Italy to become the fifth largest producer of Brazilian wood in the world.

| Global production forecast of almond based on kernels (in tons)

The main practitioners in the almond industry in the United States believe that meeting demand in the 2024/25 season is not a problem. According to data from the Almond Board of California, the sales volume of almond wood in the current season is three times that of the previous season, exceeding 173 million pounds (approximately 78471 tons), and prices have increased. The entire industry is paying attention to the objective forecast of California almond production, which will be released on July 10th. Industry insiders believe that if the subjectively predicted production of 3 billion pounds (approximately 1.36 million tons) is true, a good balance between supply and demand will be maintained. But if the objectively predicted production is higher, this balance will be disrupted. The report also emphasizes the problems faced by many farmers, as high costs make orchard management more difficult, and many fruit trees have almost no protective measures against pests and diseases. In addition, California has recently experienced another round of hot weather, and transportation costs have doubled in the past few months, which may affect demand. It is almost certain that due to low supply, shipments in August and September will slow down, and exporters will have to wait for the harvest and processing of the new crop season.